Global Themes

On Globalization & Venture Capital

Why India will* overtake China – II

My brother-in-law pointed me in the direction of this extraordinary site some days back. 

It has some amazingly cool presentations on global development statistics and trends.

For a fascinating perspective, see this chart check the box labelled “trails” (bottom right) and chart India and China from 1979 to date.

india_china-trends.png  It may just make the case for why India may overtake China in income and development indicators over the next 2-3 decades if it continues on the same trajectory.

For those of you who missed it, heres “Why India will* overtake China – I


* And in case you are still wondering about the title (which was in the best traditions of sensationalism), I accept it should be “might” rather than “will”…

April 15th, 2007 Posted by | China, Development Issues, Emerging Markets, India | 4 comments


  1. Fascinating! The focus on child survival, health and mortality as a marker is interesting; however with the backdrop of millions of AIDS orphans and the growth trends in co-morbidities related to lifestyle issues in post-industrial economies as well as growth trends in diseases or syndromes for which the East and South Asian populations are unfortunately highly predisposed, I wonder how the trajectories would change. Sotto voce…

    Comment by Shefaly Yogendra | April 16, 2007

  2. I am not too sure if the debate India v. china is relevant except from an investor’s POV. [ On that dimension, my bets are clearly on India – I do 170% IRR already :)]

    Should we really be interested in overtaking China ? Not at all. I think our priority should be to achieve economic and social upliftment of the lowest strata thro measures other than reservation, subsidies and panchayati raj that have clearly failed. I know it’s difficult to achieve egalitarian society all at once, but efforts should be on all the same.

    India lags in the hard infrastructure of roads, airports, and buildings, but leads in the “soft” infrastructure of democratic institutions, free press, and an independent judiciary. So it’s a case of glass half full. Let’s get it to the brim.

    As India emerges from decades of stupor to focus on making its economy grow, a new pragmatism that informs it of its urgency to shed its inherent weaknesses is called for.

    Rat race can wait.

    Comment by Krishna | April 17, 2007

  3. Krishna, thanks…very good point…(the heading was deliberately tongue-in-cheek).

    Frankly, there is no India vs. China debate…it is not necessary and besides it would be a little bit like comparing apples and oranges… Re. your point about gettung our priorities right: absolutely…I am with you on this.

    Comment by Shantanu Bhagwat | April 17, 2007

  4. Sumita has just cross-posted this on the 2.6billion blog (MUST HAVE A LOOK if you have not read it yet):

    and Part-I found its way to “The Editor’s Blog”, China Economic Review:

    Thanks Sumita.

    Comment by Shantanu Bhagwat | April 17, 2007

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