Even as “a group of eminent scientists” warned last week that “The Earth today stands in imminent peril …and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change” it appears that “There IS a problem with global warming… it stopped in 1998″ !! (- I somehow missed this article when it appeared last year).
Meanwhile, “Researchers at Duke University” have suggested that while “there is a discernible warming of the Earth’s temperature over the last century, some of which may be due to man-made CO2 emissions, but the effect is not all that clear and the data doesn’t support some of the more exaggerated estimates of global temperature increases.”
Dean has summed it up well on his blog:
“My own take is still the same as it’s been for some time: it’s pretty clear that there’s a probable warming trend, but it’s not clear that it’s catastrophic, and it’s even less clear that it should be our top priority in terms of environmental concerns. Clean water, clean air, forest preservation, and so on should be at the top of the agenda, not this. Although I’ve also long said I’ll compromise with the Greens: I’ll happily support curbing CO2 emissions if part of the deal is that they stop demonizing nuclear power and support the building of new nuclear plants throughout America. Barring that, I’ll continue my firm opposition to the Kyoto protocol and similar programs.”
I feel close to his position.
The more worrying thing though is that “Global-warming alarmists” are apparently trying to “intimidate dissenting scientists into silence“.
See also “An experiment that hints we are wrong on climate change”
To add to the confusion…and on a lighter note, read Global Warming – Part 1 and Part 2 on dilbert.blog
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Related Posts:
Why do I feel a chill when people talk of global warming? and
Is the sky really going to fall tomorrow?.
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mea culpa: This post has been written hurriedly and I have only cursorily gone through the various links posted here…I will have a more thorough look over the weekend but I don’t expect to find major deviations from what I have written here – perhaps some qualifications to the various statements but thats about it.
June 24th, 2007
Posted by
Shantanu |
Development Issues |
2 comments
A few weeks ago, I attended a fascinating talk at Chatham House by Professor Wing Thye Woo who teaches Economics at the University of California on “The Real Challenges to China’s Continued High Growth”
He identified three important factors which might lead to the “crash of a speeding car” aka the “Great Chinese Growth Engine”:
- Hardware failure: “right tire burst” = collapse of a crucial economic mechanism
- Software failure: “fight within car” = social disorder
- Power supply failure: “no petrol” = limits from ecological barrier or external sanctions
He also cited several interesting statistics in his presentation of which the two below particularly stood out for me:
- “Social Disorder”: 1994 had 10,000 mass incidents involving 730,000 persons? in 2004 the number had gone up to 74,000 mass incidents involving 3.7 million people.
- China’s GINI coefficient has almost doubled from .24 in ‘78 to .47 in 2005
The China Policy Institute, which made it all happen, wrote its own report on the talk which can be accessed here. The report nicely summarised the key points. I would recommend it and the slides to everyone who is watching China and its impact on the global economy.
A few excerpts:
“…China had enjoyed the highest sustained economic growth rate of any country in recorded history, he said, and it was probable that this high growth model would succeed.
But it was important to examine the factors most likely to disrupt the high growth rate from continuing…
…Professor Woo said that perhaps the greatest challenge to China’s continued high growth in China would be future global disputes over resources and the environment, following what he called the unravelling of the global consensus for free trade in the United States, which was making the atmosphere ripe for protectionism.
As China and India moved up the value chain in manufacturing complexity, he said, Western countries were being forced to make painful adjustments as more and more jobs were lost. At the same time they would be faced with demands to help pay for the environmental improvements needed in countries like China and India to curb carbon dioxide emissions, he said.
…The best way to reduce CO2 emissions was to ensure that the new power generation capacity installed in China and India made use of modern, clean coal technology, he said, but this would mean that the richer countries would have to offer to pay for this in order to enjoy the benefits.
This made the atmosphere also ripe for what he called a coming global clash over the “Global Commons” not just air but also water as well. Asia, he said, faced a looming water crisis as China made plans to divert the flow of water to rivers such as the Bramaputra and the Mekong that flowed into India and Southeast Asia…”
June 24th, 2007
Posted by
Shantanu |
China, Development Issues, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization |
3 comments
In its latest “Index of Failed States“, Foreign Policy magazine has ranked India (at # 110) way ahead of China (and Russia – both at #62) in terms of stability while Pakistan jostles for a position in the “Top 10″ (at # 12) with North Korea (at # 13) – both nuclear armed for good measure.
…and yet the report describes China in words that could have almost been written for India:
“…the growing divide between urban and rural, as well as continued protests in the countryside, reveals pockets of frailty that the central govenment is only just beginning to address”.
For the curious amongst you, the top 3 places in the Index go to Sudan, Iraq and Somalia.
Related posts:
Why India will* overtake China – II
China, India and the “3D Advantage”
India, China and the next decade…
Of Googlies*, Cricket, India and China
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June 21st, 2007
Posted by
Shantanu |
China, Development Issues, Emerging Markets, Globalization, India |
2 comments
In the latest issue of TIME, Bryan Walsh has written a fairly balanced piece on carbon emissions – which unfortunately is marred by a (deliberately?) provocative headline, “The Third World Smoke Alarm” (Interestingly, the European edition of the magazine has dropped the “Third World” prefix and has printed the article simply titled “Smoke Alarm”).
It was the sub-heading though that first caught my eye. It read:
“To stop climate change, developing nations must wake up and smell the carbon”…I wish I could have added …”and developed nations must share the burden”.
I have written on this issue before and it is interesting to observe how the blame surreptitiously gets shifted to the developing nations (e.g. the alarmist title – “Third World” Smoke Alarm….surely, if it is an alarm, it is probably a “Global” Smoke Alarm?).
*** Some excerpts below ***
“…Once home to some of the most extensive rain forests in the world, Indonesia is now losing trees at a faster rate than any other nation, to flames but also to rampant logging. …Indonesia’s rapid deforestation is the main reason why this country of 245 million is the third biggest carbon emitter in the world after the U.S. and China.
But as in other developing countries, the Indonesian government says it needs to focus on economic growth to raise its people out of poverty—and that likely means that trees will be cut, cars will be added and carbon emissions will only go up.
…Drawing on the work of thousands of scientists vetted by officials from over 100 countries, the IPCC reported that future carbon emissions could be controlled using current technology like nuclear or renewable energy—and that it could be done without bankrupting the global economy. “Measures to reduce emissions can, in the main, be achieved at starkly low costs, especially when compared with the costs of inaction,” said Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
…As economic growth shifts to the developing world—especially Asia—so will future carbon emissions.
Whether the world can effectively combat climate change will be determined by countries like Indonesia and India—and particularly China, which could pass the U.S. as the world’s top carbon emitter any day.
…But if developing countries choose to ignore global warming, even the most radical actions out of the developed world could be rendered meaningless.
…Because developing nations have emphasized that they can’t afford to jeopardize the pace of economic growth for the sake of the environment, the only climate-change solutions they’re likely to accept will be ones that come cheap.
Fortunately the IPCC says that’s possible—the new report concludes that the cost of stabilizing global carbon emissions by 2030 could require as little as one-tenth of a percentage point per year of global growth through the end of the century.
Those costs will have to be borne by someone, and the developing nations will rightly push for North America and Europe to pick up the check.Expect that argument to be renewed at the next major U.N. climate-change meeting in Bali, Indonesia, at the end of the year.
Developing nations make the point that they’re not responsible for the vast majority of carbon dioxide hanging around in the atmosphere—which was put there by Western countries during their own development over the past 150 years.
They argue that their own per capita-emissions rates are still far lower than those of the West, and that, therefore, climate change isn’t their responsibility.
But future global warming will hinge on how we deal with future carbon emissions—most of which will come from developing Asia. The center of gravity of climate-change politics has moved to China, India and Indonesia. Their decisions will shape the world we live in.”
*** End of Excerpts ***
Find the article in full here.
Finally, here’s a useful chart showing world carbon dioxide emissions by country between 1990 – 2035.
May 23rd, 2007
Posted by
Shantanu |
Development Issues, Emerging Markets |
25 comments
Last week, I came across Simon Lazenbatt’s post on 2point6billion blog* about how India’s middle class may be failing the country.
Now the middle class in India has - at various times – been blamed for everything from the AIDS epidemic to pretending that everything around them is nice and happy.
Simon’s post – although broadly in a similar vein, was slightly different. It appeared to suggest that the middle class in India was apathetic and indifferent to the plight of the poor and the under-privileged and - possibly - perfectly happy for the status quo to continue so that they can enjoy their life and the comforts of middle class existence (such as having maids and servants at your beckoning).
*** CAUTION: Long Post ***
First some extracts from the article followed by my response:
Keep Reading…
April 23rd, 2007
Posted by
Shantanu |
Development Issues, India |
10 comments
